2.1m Nigerians at risk —Report

A new research study by Britain’s University of Oxford has revealed that 2.1 million Nigerians are at risk of contracting the Ebola Virus Disease.

According to the latest study published on Monday, the Ebola virus can spread to at least 15 more countries in West and Central Africa, pushing up overall number of people at risk of infection to 70 million.

The research titled, ‘Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa,’ compared historic outbreaks to the virus’s possible transmission in bats and chimpanzees to project how the virus could spread through its animal reservoir.



The map revealed how the populations of the Central African Republic, Cameroon, Ghana and 12 other countries could be affected by the outbreak, which has recorded about 2,300 deaths this year alone. The new map identified areas where animals are likely to be infected with the Ebola virus as a first step towards understanding where future outbreaks of the disease may occur.

Among the African countries described as ‘Set 1’ predicted to be at risk and with reported human index cases are Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Uganda, Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon, Congo and South Sudan.

Nigeria, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Liberia, Angola, Togo, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Burundi, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar and Malawi, were predicted to be at risk but with no reported human index cases.

The map, based on a model created by a team led by Oxford University scientists, predicted that in animal populations the Ebola virus was likely to be circulating across a vast swathe of forested Central and West Africa. This area covers seven countries which have already reported Ebola transmission from animals to humans, as well as 15 more countries which are likely to be at risk.

“So far there have been only 30 confirmed cases of Ebola transmission from animals to humans. However, current international efforts to control outbreaks of Ebola in humans in Nigeria and other West Africa countries, and reports of a separate outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, highlight the importance of being prepared for future outbreaks of the disease so that they can be stopped early,” the Oxford University said.

The Oxford-led team generated the model by bringing together available data on where human and animal infections have occurred from 1976 to the present and looking for similarities in environmental factors such as vegetation, elevation, temperature, and estimated distribution of bat populations.

The researchers were then able to create a map identifying similar areas where the virus is likely to be carried by animals and there is a risk of transmission to humans triggering future outbreaks, the university added.

Although the epidemic in Guinea is different from previous outbreaks in Central Africa, the model suggested that the forested areas in which it started were similar. Similarly, the current reported cases in DR Congo also lie close to areas predicted to contain infected animals.